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Evaluation of stock market efficiency and selection of appropriate investment strategy
JAKLOVÁ, Kamila
The main assumption of market efficiency theory is that stock price developments are random. The first mention of this theory comes from the 1950s. The aim of this diploma thesis is to determine the degree of market efficiency based on market efficiency testing. The market can achieve weak forms of efficiency, medium forms of market efficiency and strong forms of efficiency, depending on how quickly stock responds to all information in the market. Market efficiency is tested based on Correlation Test and Runs Test. These are tests focused on the independence of changes in stock prices. The aim of these tests is to describe the relationship between stock prices at time t and t-1. The tests are performed on daily returns of 60 stocks from the five most important areas of the US stock market in the period 1/2015 to 12/2016. These are the areas of Information Technology, the Financial industry, the Pharmaceutical industry, the Food industry, and the Automotive industry. Furthermore, the presence of market anomalies is tested. If these special effects are confirmed, the presence of an efficient market can be refuted. These are the Monday and January effects. Based on the determined market efficiency, investment strategies are assigned to selected areas of the US market. Investment strategies can be divided into two groups of active strategy and passive strategy. The passive strategy assumes of long-term shareholding. An active strategy responds to market signals based on which the investor decides to buy or sell a stock in order to achieve above-average profits. Market buy / sell signals are calculated based on exponential moving averages. These are short-term, medium-term, and long-term moving averages applied to 60 selected stocks.
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Assessment of stock market efficiency and selection of a suitable investment strategy
HORČIČKOVÁ, Jordanka
The aim of this thesis was to assess the efficiency of the stock market and based on to choose a suitable investment strategy. The efficiency of the stock market was tested using an autocorrelation test and two runs tests - the Wald-Wolfowitz runs test and the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. Based on the ambiguous results of market efficiency tests, the investment strategy was developed using fundamental and technical analysis. The fundamental analysis was represented by a dividend discount model. Technical analysis was represented by indicators: EMA (exponential moving average), Bollinger bands, ROC (rate of change), S-ROC, CCI (commodity channel index) and OBV (on balance volume). The results of individual investment strategies were compared with each other and with a passive investment strategy.
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Financial market efficiency
HORKÁ, Petra
The aim of this thesis is to assess the behavior of prices of chosen financial assets and to verify the hypothesis of random walk on the financial market of cryptocurrencies. Testing of the effective market hypothesis was applied to chosen cryptocurrencies Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin compared to the US dollar. The essence of random walk is a non-existent relation between historical and future prices. The model says that price changes are random and cannot be predicted. The random walk analysis was performed using chosen statistical tests, namely the run test, the scattering ratio test, the autocorrelation tests and the unit root test. Data for testing was obtained from the online website for the period from 1 January 2016 to 30 September 2019 and the EViews program was chosen for testing both daily and weekly price changes. In this thesis, based on all statistical tests was shown inefficiency of all chosen cryptocurrencies in the chosen period. Cryptomania, which occurred at the end of 2017 and the subsequent drop in the price of all cryptocurrencies to almost the minimum value at the beginning of 2018, explains ineffective behavior.
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Financial market efficiency
KOPTIŠ, Daniel
This diploma thesis analyses the market efficiency hypothesis of chosen currency pairs EUR/USD, EUR/CZK and USD/CZK. The aim of this study is to describe the price behaviour of chosen financial assets and verify the random walk hypothesis on the foreign exchange market. Model of random walk says there is no relationship between historical and future prices, so price changes are random and cannot be predicted. Random walk hypothesis was tested by chosen statistic tests runs test, test of auto-correlation, variance ratio test and unit root test (Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test). Data were collected through the online trading platform and tested in EViews. Period of testing for daily changes (D1) was chosen from 31.12.2009 to 29.12.2017 and for weekly changes (T1) from 2.1.2005 to 29.12.2017. This thesis proved weak-form efficiency of EUR/USD and USD/CZK for both daily changes and weekly changes in a chosen period. Inefficient behaviour of daily changes of EUR/CZK (D1) was indicated by runs test, test of autocorrelation and variance ratio test. There is a question what the cause of inefficiency is. The most likely explanation is currency intervention of the Czech National Bank which took place from April 2013 to April 2017 in order to achieve the inflation target and prevent deflation. Traders could also achieve profits by speculating on appreciation of Czech Crown below 27,-crowns/euro which is not in harmony with efficient-market hypothesis. Moreover, currency pair EUR/CZK is not liquid as major currency pairs and there are bigger transaction costs because of bid-offer spread. This work can contribute to next research in connection with results of this study. To verify if the cause of inefficient behaviour of daily price changes of EUR/USD are currency interventions of the Czech National Bank, I would suggest testing efficient-market hypothesis exactly at the time of interventions. It would be also suitable to compare results of different methodologies including testing in short-time intervals of price changes.
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Event Study on Financial Announcements: New Evidence of Stock Sensitivity and Post-Earnings-Announcement Drift
Čonka, Matěj ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Habiňák, Ladislav (referee)
This thesis investigates the presence of abnormal returns after the companies announce their earnings (earnings-price anomaly) on 23 companies listed on STOXX 50 Europe index. Weuse the event studies framework and we summarize main models for abnormal returns' estimation with closer look on the Market Model and CAPM. We do not find considerable value added when using more complex CAPM compared to the Market Model. The results show significant abnormal returns for good news and bad news earnings surprises with bigger market reaction on good news earnings surprises. The findings also provide the evidence of market inefficiency and the possibility of pre-announcement leakage of information. We find post-earnings-announcement drift for good news earnings surprisesandthepresenceofcontrarianreturns.
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Testing the Presence of Adaptive Switching Behavior in Equity Markets
Staněk, Filip ; Kukačka, Jiří (advisor) ; Švarcová, Natálie (referee)
In many financial agent based models, the concept of adaptive switching be- havior is employed as a substitute for the, elegant yet unrealistic, assumption of rational expectations. Studies estimating these models however frequently suggest that agents do not behave adaptively. To better understand the source of this discrepancy, we propose a test for the presence of switching which does not require us to specify beforehand the exact form of the switching mecha- nism nor the strategies among which agents can choose. We verify the ability of the test to detect switching by Monte Carlo simulations and then apply it to stock prices from the New York Stock Exchange. The null hypothesis of the absence of switching is strongly rejected. Furthermore, we assess robustness of this finding by applying the test individually to various sub-sets of the data-set. The switching is prevalent in all considered sub-periods and in all groups of stocks categorized by traded volume. JEL Classification G02, G12, G14, D83, D84 Keywords Bounded Rationality, Adaptive Switching, In- tensity of Choice, Market Efficiency Author's e-mail stanek.fi@gmail.com Supervisor's e-mail jiri.kukacka@fsv.cuni.cz
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On the Link between Spot and Forward Power Prices: A Comparative Analysis of German and Hungarian Power Market Efficiency
Harnych, Pavel ; Krištoufek, Ladislav (advisor) ; Doležel, Pavel (referee)
This thesis examines the impact of shocks in spot prices on long-term forward contracts in power markets. A unique comparison of efficiency of German and Hungarian power markets is provided. The risk premium on week-ahead forward contract is scrutinized by both data inspection and by unbiased forward rate hypothesis (UFRH) testing. Additionally, the ex-post market's prediction error for this product is explained by main drivers of spot electricity price, which are presented in section devoted to introduction to power markets. Expectedly, Hungarian forwards with longer time-to-delivery are found to react heavily on spot market shocks after controlling for changes in short-run marginal costs of conventional power plants. Such outcome applies both to intra-day and weekly time horizons. However, this evidence was not found for German market. These results point out to immaturity and the presence of inefficiencies in Hungarian power market. However, Hungarian risk premia on week-ahead and day-ahead forward products turn out to be considerably lower than for Germany. This was confirmed by UFRH tests on week-ahead forward contracts, where a significant risk premium was found in Germany as opposed to Hungarian risk premium. This finding is surprising since Hungarian spot prices are more prone to upward...
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The Empirical Analysis of Efficiency of Wagering Market
Flegr, Jan ; Hronza, Martin (advisor) ; Koubek, Ivo (referee)
Aim of this diploma thesis is to provide empirical tests of market efficiency of tennis wagering market. In large dataset, which consists of nearly 47 thousands matches and 225 thousands odds, I am searching for anomalies, which can prove market inefficiency. Potentially profitable and exploitable betting strategies are also examined. Main tools of empirical analysis are linear probability models and logit models. Favorit-longshot bias is present in my data, this finding is consistent with results of other empirical works (Lahvička, 2013; Cain, Law, Peel, 2000). Major contribution of this paper is confirmation of home-away bias, the issue, which was not tested in tennis matches so far. The same holds for chart-bias. I am not able to find profitable wagering rules based on out-of-sample predictions of my models. Simple betting rule, which consists of betting systematically on overwhelming favorites, is derived from historical odds. This strategy yields a profit 0,0094, but it's applicability is very limited.
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Eseje o ekonomii sportu
Lahvička, Jiří ; Chytil, Zdeněk (advisor) ; Schwarz, Jiří (referee) ; Pertold Gebická, Barbara (referee)
This dissertation consists of five articles about economics of sports. The first three articles investigate various types of outcome uncertainty and how they relate to match attendance demand, while the remaining two articles test the efficiency of sports betting markets. The first article presents a new method of calculating match importance. Unlike the previous approaches in the literature, it does not require ex-post information and can be used for any type of season outcome. The second article shows that the additional playoff stage in the Czech ice hockey "Extraliga" lowers the probability of the strongest team becoming a champion and thus increases seasonal uncertainty. The third article demonstrates that the inconsistent findings in the literature about the link between match uncertainty and attendance could be explained by wrongly specified regressions, proposes a new approach to analyzing the effect of match uncertainty and shows that attendance demand is maximized if teams of the same quality play against each other. The fourth article examines the favorite-longshot bias in the context of betting on tennis matches. It shows that the favorite-longshot bias pattern is consistent with bookmakers protecting themselves against both better informed insiders and the general public exploiting new information. The fifth article investigates the supposedly profitable strategy of betting on soccer draws using the Fibonacci sequence. The strategy is tested both in a simulated market and on a real data set and found to lose money.
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Comparison of basic characteristics (income, risks, degrees of effectiveness) in selected sectors and industries Stock Exchange
SAIKO, Michaela
The aim of this diploma work was to analyze a selected segment of the stock exchange market using the theory of market efficiency and the methods of technical and fundamental analysis, to form an optimal investment strategy on the basis of the findings. The American stock exchange market was analyzed. Six different segments of the capital market were selected ? gold, oil and gas pipelines, steel and iron, car parts, food and telecommunication services. Each segment was represented by eight companies. The general characteristics of the companies were compared according to their profits, degree of risk, alpha and beta coefficients. Fundamental analysis was used to monitor the correlation between future profits for 2012 and alpha coefficients for the period 2007 ? 2011. The theory was proven ? at low levels of future profits, high levels of alpha coefficients were measured and vice versa - at high levels of future profits, low levels of alpha coefficients were measured. During efficiency tests, runs tests and correlation tests were monitored. During runs tests, the number of turns of a real file was compared with the number of runs of a simulated file; no distinctive variances were identified in the monitored stock titles. Forms of market efficiency were proven during the correlation tests and runs tests. The methods of technical analysis used were sliding averages, RSI indicators and Momentum. Trading on the basis of technical analysis is not completely possible because we did not succeed in finding an existing optimal strategy. If an optimal strategy works out it is regardless of the segment?s characteristics. I recommend a passive strategy with regards to the fundamental analysis.
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